Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
50 – 17
24 October 2020Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.5 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Andrew Porter
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Caelan Doris-11.4
- 7Will Connors
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11Hugo Keenan-3.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Jacob Stockdale-3.8
Replacements
- 16Dave Heffernan
- 17Ed Byrne
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Luca Bigi(c)
- 3Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 4Marco Lazzaroni
- 5Niccolò Cannone
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Braam Steyn+4.4
- 8Jake Polledri
- 9Marcello Violi
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 18Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Johan Meyer
- 21Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 22Callum Braley
- 23Federico Mori
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.