Wales v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 16
7 February 2021Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 2.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Hallam Amos
- 12Johnny Williams
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhodri Jones
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Will Rowlands-7.2
- 20Josh Navidi+6.8
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Nick Tompkins-1.1
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Andrew Porter
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Will Connors
- 21Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 22Billy Burns
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.