England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 18
13 February 2021Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- -1.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Jonny Hill
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21Jack Willis
- 22Dan Robson
- 23Max Malins
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi(c)
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Marco Lazzaroni
- 5David Sisi+1.5
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Johan Meyer
- 8Michele Lamaro
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Luca Sperandio
- 15Jacopo Trulla
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Danilo Fischetti
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Niccolò Cannone
- 20Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Federico Mori
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.