Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 48
27 February 2021Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi(c)
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Marco Lazzaroni
- 5David Sisi+1.5
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Johan Meyer
- 8Michele Lamaro
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Carlo Canna+1.5
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Luca Sperandio
- 15Jacopo Trulla
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Niccolò Cannone
- 20Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Federico Mori
- 23Mattia Bellini+1.7
Ireland
- 1Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Will Connors
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Jordan Larmour-6.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Billy Burns
- 23Keith Earls-4.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1 | Conversions | 6 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.