England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 20
13 March 2021Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 6.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.7 mm
- Wind
- 39 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Max Malins
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Jonny Hill
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21Dan Robson
- 22Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 23Elliot Daly-1.4
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Mohamed Haouas
- 4Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 5Paul Willemse-0.7
- 6Dylan Cretin
- 7Charles Ollivon(c)-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Damian Penaud-1.8
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Teddy Thomas
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Cyril Cazeaux
- 20Cameron Woki-3.5
- 21Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 22Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 23Romain Ntamack-1.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.