Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 38
5 September 2021Optus Stadium, Perth
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 06:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 14.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Darcy Swain
- 5Matt Philip
- 6Lachlan Swinton
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Banks
Replacements
- 16Lachlan Lonergan
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Izack Rodda
- 20Pete Samu-4.3
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Reece Hodge
- 23Jordan Petaia
New Zealand
- 1George Bower+1.1
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Akira Ioane
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 9Brad Weber
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Ethan Blackadder
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23George Bridge
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 6 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.