South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 10
6 August 2022Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 693 m
- Temperature
- 18.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Salmaan Moerat
- 20Franco Mostert-1.0
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
New Zealand
- 1George Bower+1.1
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Angus Ta'avao
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Akira Ioane
- 7Sam Cane(c)+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 18Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 19Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 20Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 23Quinn Tupaea-8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.