Wales v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 34
4 February 2023Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Ken Owens(c)+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Jac Morgan+0.3
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Rhys Webb+1.9
- 22Owen Williams
- 23Alex Cuthbert+0.2
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 421m | Carry metres | 436m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 33 |
| 10 | Offloads | 5 |
| 177 | Passes | 154 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 184 | Tackles made | 155 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 33 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 23 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 98 | Rucks won | 103 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 11 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 630m | Kick metres | 852m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.