Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 29
11 March 2023Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Pierre Bruno
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Federico Zani
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Edoardo Iachizzi
- 20Giovanni Pettinelli
- 21Manuel Zuliani
- 22Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 23Luca Morisi+0.0
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens(c)+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6Jac Morgan+0.3
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Owen Williams
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Mason Grady+3.4
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Rhys Davies
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22George North+8.6
- 23Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.