New Zealand v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
96 – 17
29 September 2023Groupama Stadium, Lyon · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Italy
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 192 m
- Temperature
- 19.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Mark Tele'a-5.2
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Cam Roigard+11.5
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Dino Lamb
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Ange Capuozzo-6.5
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 806m | Carry metres | 445m |
| 20 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 14 | Offloads | 4 |
| 190 | Passes | 166 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 108 | Tackles made | 125 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 64.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 14 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 55.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 25.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 70 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 11 |
| 772m | Kick metres | 376m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tries | 2 |
| 13 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.