Ireland v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 28
14 October 2023Stade de France, Saint-Denis · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.3 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5Iain Henderson-1.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Jimmy O'Brien
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane(c)+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Leicester Faingaʻanuku
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 633m | Carry metres | 465m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 31 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 8 | Offloads | 3 |
| 325 | Passes | 137 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Tackles made | 226 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 31 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 87.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| — | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| — | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 129 | Rucks won | 94 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 696m | Kick metres | 880m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.