Wales v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
64 – 15
9 October 1999Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Japan
- Kick-off
- 12:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 14.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 5 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young
- 4Craig Quinnell
- 5Mike Voyle
- 6Martyn Williams+5.7
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Geraint Lewis
- 9Rob Howley(c)
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Allan Bateman
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Jason Jones-Hughes
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Stephen Jones+0.2
- 17Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 18David Llewellyn
- 19Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 20Ben Evans
- 21Andrew Lewis
- 22Jonathan Humphreys
Japan
- 1Shin Hasegawa
- 2Masahiro Kunda
- 3Naoto Nakamura
- 4Rob Gordon
- 5Hiroyuki Tanuma
- 6Naoya Okubo
- 7Greg Smith
- 8Jamie Joseph
- 9Graeme Bachop
- 10Keiji Hirose
- 11Pat Tuidraki
- 12Yukio Motoki
- 13Andrew McCormick(c)
- 14Daisuke Ohata
- 15Takafumi Hirao
Replacements
- 16Wataru Murata
- 17Takeomi Ito
- 18Yoshihiko Sakuraba
- 19Toshikazu Nakamichi
- 20Masaaki Sakata
- 21Terunori Masuho
- 22Akira Yoshida
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.