South Africa v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
60 – 10
1 November 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 22.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Christo Bezuidenhout
- 2John Smit+6.0
- 3Faan Rautenbach
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Derick Hougaard
- 11Thinus Delport
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Jorrie Muller
- 14Ashwin Willemse
- 15Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Replacements
- 16Danie Coetzee
- 17Richard Bands
- 18Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 19Schalk Burger+6.0
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21Louis Koen
- 22Jaque Fourie+6.3
Samoa
- 1Kas Lealamanu'a
- 2Jon Meredith
- 3Jeremy Tomuli
- 4Opeta Palepoi
- 5Leo Lafaiali'i
- 6Peter Poulos
- 7Maurie Fa'asavalu
- 8Semo Sititi(c)
- 9Steve So'oialo
- 10Earl Va'a
- 11Sailosi Tagicakibau
- 12Brian Lima
- 13Romi Ropati
- 14Lome Fa'atau
- 15Tanner Vili
Replacements
- 16Mo Schwalger
- 17Tamato Leupolu
- 18Kitiona Viliamu
- 19Des Tuiavi'i
- 20Denning Tyrell
- 21Dale Rasmussen
- 22Dom Feau'nati
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Possession | 11.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 764m | Carry metres | 658m |
| 27 | Clean breaks | 16 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 33 |
| 17 | Offloads | 17 |
| 125 | Passes | 157 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | Tackles made | 60 |
| 72.0% | Tackle success | 71.0% |
| 33 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 14 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 83.3% | Lineout success | 66.7% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 10 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 49 | Rucks won | 69 |
| 14 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 12 |
| 857m | Kick metres | 382m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 17 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.