Scotland v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
56 – 10
9 September 2007Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 486 m
- Temperature
- 14.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Simon Webster+9.7
- 12Rob Dewey
- 13Marcus di Rollo
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Rory Lamont+0.8
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Kelly Brown+3.1
- 20Rory Lawson-3.0
- 21Chris Paterson+1.8
- 22Hugo Southwell
Portugal
- 1Rui Cordeiro
- 2Joaquim Ferreira
- 3Reuben Cristian Spachuk
- 4Goncalo Uva
- 5David Penalva
- 6Juan Severino Somoza
- 7Joao Uva
- 8Vasco Uva(c)
- 9Jose Pinto Neves
- 10Duarte Pinto
- 11Pedro Carvalho Cabral
- 12Diogo Mateus
- 13Frederico Sousa
- 14David Mateus
- 15Pedro Leal
Replacements
- 16Juan Murre Peke
- 17Joao Correia
- 18Paulo Murinelo
- 19Diego Coutinho
- 20Luis Pissarra
- 21Pedro Cabral
- 22Miguel Portela de Morais
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | Possession | 36.0% |
| 69.0% | Territory | 31.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 621m | Carry metres | 210m |
| 29 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 18 | Offloads | 9 |
| 159 | Passes | 69 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 65 | Tackles made | 116 |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 29 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 89.5% | Lineout success | 46.1% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Rucks won | 53 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 8 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.