Scotland v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 0
18 September 2007Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Romania
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.2 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Rob Dewey
- 13Simon Webster+9.7
- 14Sean Lamont+5.6
- 15Rory Lamont+0.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Craig Smith
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Kelly Brown+3.1
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Hugo Southwell
- 22Nikki Walker
Romania
- 1Petrisor Toderasc
- 2Marius Tincu
- 3Bogdan Balan
- 4Sorin Socol(c)
- 5Cristian Petre
- 6Florin Corodeanu
- 7Alex Manta
- 8Ovidiu Tonita
- 9Lucian Sirbu
- 10Ionut Dimofte
- 11Gabriel Brezoianu
- 12Romeo Gontineac
- 13Csaba Gal
- 14Catalin Fercu
- 15Iulian Dumitras
Replacements
- 16Silviu Florea
- 17Razvan Mavrodin
- 18Cosmin Ratiu
- 19Alex Tudori
- 20Valentin Calafeteanu
- 21Ionut Tofan
- 22Florin Vlaicu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 605m | Carry metres | 223m |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 14 | Offloads | 4 |
| 117 | Passes | 73 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Tackles made | 85 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% | Lineout success | 64.7% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 12 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | — |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.