South Africa v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 25
22 September 2007Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 12:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 44 m
- Temperature
- 14.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2Gary Botha
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 6Wikus van Heerden
- 7Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 8Bobby Skinstad(c)+2.3
- 9Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11JP Pietersen+0.8
- 12Wayne Julies
- 13Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 14Ashwin Willemse
- 15Ruan Pienaar+0.0
Replacements
- 16John Smit+6.0
- 17BJ Botha
- 18Victor Matfield-1.4
- 19Juan Smith+0.6
- 20Bryan Habana+1.1
- 21Francois Steyn+7.8
- 22Percy Montgomery+0.2
Tonga
- 1Soane Tonga'uiha
- 2Aleki Lutui
- 3Kisi Pulu
- 4Kele Hehea
- 5Emosi Kauhenga
- 6Viliami Vaki
- 7Nili Latu(c)
- 8Finau Maka
- 9Sione Tuipulotu
- 10Pierre Hola
- 11Sefa Vaka
- 12Epi Taione
- 13Suka Hufanga
- 14Tevita Tu'ifua
- 15Vunga Lilo
Replacements
- 16Ephraim Taukafa
- 17Toma Toke
- 18Inoke Afeaki
- 19Lotu Filipine
- 20Soane Havea
- 21Kaiongo Tupou
- 22Aisea Havili Kaufusi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% | Possession | 63.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 634m | Carry metres | 500m |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 8 | Offloads | 11 |
| 83 | Passes | 78 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Tackles made | 70 |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| — | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.