England v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 20
28 September 2007Parc des Princes, Paris · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.9 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2George Chuter
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Olly Barkley
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Phil Vickery+2.7
- 18Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Peter Richards
- 21Andy Farrell
- 22Dan Hipkiss
Tonga
- 1Soane Tonga'uiha
- 2Aleki Lutui
- 3Kisi Pulu
- 4Viliami Vaki
- 5Lisiate Fa'aoso
- 6Hale T-Pole
- 7Nili Latu(c)
- 8Finau Maka
- 9Sione Tuipulotu
- 10Pierre Hola
- 11Sefa Vaka
- 12Epi Taione
- 13Suka Hufanga
- 14Tevita Tu'ifua
- 15Vunga Lilo
Replacements
- 16Ephraim Taukafa
- 17Taufa'ao Filise
- 18Ma'ama Molitika
- 19Inoke Afeaki
- 20Soane Havea
- 21Hudson Tonga'uiha
- 22Aisea Havili Kaufusi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 516m | Carry metres | 353m |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 7 | Offloads | 9 |
| 98 | Passes | 73 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 88 | Tackles made | 85 |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 92.3% | Lineout success | — |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 9 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 64 | Rucks won | 65 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.