South Africa v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
49 – 3
17 September 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 06:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11JP Pietersen+0.8
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Odwa Ndungane
- 15Patrick Lambie+6.5
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Francois Louw+9.7
- 19Willem Alberts+10.1
- 20Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Juan de Jongh-2.5
Fiji
- 1Campese Ma'afu
- 2Sunia Koto
- 3Deacon Manu(c)
- 4Leone Nakarawa
- 5Wame Lewaravu
- 6Dominiko Waqaniburotu
- 7Akapusi Qera
- 8Masi Matadigo
- 9Nemia Kenatale
- 10Waisea Luveniyali
- 11Napolioni Nalaga
- 12Seremaia Bai
- 13Gaby Lovobalavu
- 14Vereniki Goneva
- 15Kini Murimurivalu
Replacements
- 16Talemaitoga Tuapati
- 17Waisea Nailago
- 18Netani Talei
- 19Sisa Koyamaibole
- 20Vitori Buatava
- 21Nicky Little
- 22Ravai Fatiaki
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 795m | Carry metres | 495m |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 213 | Passes | 159 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Tackles made | 130 |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | 87.5% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 37 | Scrums won | 33 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Rucks won | 97 |
| 5 | Mauls won | — |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | — |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.