Wales v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 10
18 September 2011FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 03:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 9.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.3 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15James Hook-12.6
Replacements
- 16Lloyd Burns
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Bradley Davies+0.8
- 19Andy Powell
- 20Tavis Knoyle
- 21Scott Williams+3.8
- 22Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Samoa
- 1Sakaria Taulafo
- 2Mo Schwalger(c)
- 3Anthony Perenise
- 4Dan Leo
- 5Kane Thompson
- 6Ofisa Treviranus
- 7Maurie Fa'asavalu
- 8George Stowers
- 9Kahn Fotuali'i
- 10Tasesa Lavea Levi
- 11Alesana Tuilagi
- 12Seilala Mapusua
- 13George Pisi
- 14Sailosi Tagicakibau
- 15Paul Williams
Replacements
- 16Ti'i Paulo
- 17Census Johnston
- 18Joe Tekori
- 19Manu Salavea
- 20Jeremy Su'a
- 21Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu
- 22James So'oialo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | Possession | 58.0% |
| 36.0% | Territory | 64.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 424m | Carry metres | 406m |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 145 | Passes | 160 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 189 | Tackles made | 110 |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 78.6% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 25 | Scrums won | 25 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Rucks won | 124 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.