Ireland v Russia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
62 – 12
25 September 2011Rotorua International Stadium, Rotorua · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Russia
- Kick-off
- 05:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 296 m
- Temperature
- 6.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.3 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-38.15569,176.22429 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Sean Cronin+4.2
- 3Tony Buckley
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Leo Cullen(c)+1.0
- 6Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Isaac Boss
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Paddy Wallace
- 13Keith Earls-4.9
- 14Fergus McFadden+2.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Mike Ross
- 18Denis Leamy+5.0
- 19Shane Jennings
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 22Geordan Murphy-2.5
Russia
- 1Sergey Popov
- 2Valery Tsnobiladze
- 3Alexandr Khrokhin
- 4Denis Antonov
- 5Adam Byrnes
- 6Artem Fatakhov
- 7Andrey Garbuzov
- 8Victor Gresev
- 9Alexandr Ianyushkin(c)
- 10Konstantin Rachkov
- 11Vladimir Ostroushko
- 12Sergey Trishin
- 13Andrei Kuzin
- 14Denis Simplikevich
- 15Vasily Artemyev
Replacements
- 16Evgeny Matveev
- 17Ivan Prishchepenko
- 18Alexei Travkin
- 19Alexandr Voytov
- 20Andrei Bykanov
- 21Mikhail Sidorov
- 22Mikhail Babaev
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0% | Possession | 31.0% |
| 73.0% | Territory | 27.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 976m | Carry metres | 293m |
| 37 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 205 | Passes | 61 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Tackles made | 148 |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 39 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 91.7% | Lineout success | 68.4% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 27 | Scrums won | 28 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 105 | Rucks won | 34 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.