Wales v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
66 – 0
2 October 2011FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 05:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 15.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.8 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Luke Charteris+2.1
- 6Ryan Jones+7.9
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Lloyd Burns
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 19Andy Powell
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Jonathan Davies+5.6
Fiji
- 1Waisea Nailago
- 2Sunia Koto
- 3Setefano Somoca
- 4Leone Nakarawa
- 5Wame Lewaravu
- 6Rupeni Nasiga
- 7Masi Matadigo
- 8Netani Talei(c)
- 9Vitori Buatava
- 10Nicky Little
- 11Michael Tagicakibau
- 12Gaby Lovobalavu
- 13Ravai Fatiaki
- 14Albert Vulivuli
- 15Iliesa Keresoni
Replacements
- 16Viliame Veikoso
- 17Campese Ma'afu
- 18Malakai Ravulo
- 19Akapusi Qera
- 20Nemia Kenatale
- 21Seremaia Bai
- 22Vereniki Goneva
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 50.0% | Territory | 50.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 716m | Carry metres | 409m |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 149 | Passes | 135 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Tackles made | 76 |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% | Lineout success | 77.8% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 41 | Scrums won | 34 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 2 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | — |
| 9 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.