Ireland v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
50 – 7
19 September 2015Principality Stadium, Cardiff · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Canada
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Dave Kearney
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Nathan White
- 19Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 20Chris Henry
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Simon Zebo-1.2
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Ray Barkwill
- 3Doug Wooldridge
- 4Brett Beukeboom
- 5Jamie Cudmore(c)
- 6Kyle Gilmour
- 7John Moonlight
- 8Aaron Carpenter
- 9Gordon McRorie
- 10Nathan Hirayama
- 11DTH Van Der Merwe
- 12Nick Blevins
- 13Ciaran Hearn
- 14Jeff Hassler
- 15Matt Evans
Replacements
- 16Benoit Piffero
- 17Djustice Sears-Duru
- 18Andrew Tiedemann
- 19Jebb Sinclair
- 20Richard Thorpe
- 21Phil Mack
- 22Liam Underwood
- 23Conor Trainor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 732m | Carry metres | 477m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 29 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 5 | Offloads | 7 |
| 212 | Passes | 136 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Tackles made | 161 |
| 92.0% | Tackle success | 85.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 29 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 70.6% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 43 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 319m | Kick metres | 264m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.