Scotland v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 16
27 September 2015Elland Road, Leeds · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v USA
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Jon Welsh
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Henry Pyrgos(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Peter Horne+2.1
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Kevin Bryce
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Fraser Brown-1.1
- 21Greig Laidlaw
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Matt Scott-5.4
USA
- 1Eric Fry
- 2Phil Thiel
- 3Titi Lamositele
- 4Hayden Smith
- 5Greg Peterson
- 6Al McFarland
- 7Andrew Durutalo
- 8Samu Manoa
- 9Mike Petri
- 10AJ MacGinty
- 11Blaine Scully
- 12Thretton Palamo
- 13Seamus Kelly
- 14Takudzwa Ngwenya
- 15Chris Wyles(c)
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 324m | Carry metres | 337m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 8 | Offloads | 4 |
| 113 | Passes | 124 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Tackles made | 105 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 93.3% | Lineout success | 54.5% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Rucks won | 88 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 445m | Kick metres | 369m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.