England v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 7
26 September 2019Kobe Misaki Stadium, Kobe
What the model says about England v USA
- Kick-off
- 10:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 24.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Willi Heinz
- 10George Ford(c)-2.9
- 11Joe Cokanasiga
- 12Piers Francis
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Ruaridh McConnochie
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Jack Singleton
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Mark Wilson
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Owen Farrell+1.1
- 23Anthony Watson-0.9
USA
- 1David Ainuʻu
- 2Joe Taufete'e
- 3Titi Lamositele
- 4Ben Landry
- 5Nick Civetta
- 6Tony Lamborn
- 7John Quill
- 8Cam Dolan
- 9Shaun Davies
- 10AJ MacGinty
- 11Martin Iosefo
- 12Paul Lasike
- 13Marcel Brache
- 14Blaine Scully(c)
- 15Will Hooley
Replacements
- 16Dylan Fawsitt
- 17Olive Kilifi
- 18Paul Mullen
- 19Greg Peterson
- 20Hanco Germishuys
- 21Ruben de Haas
- 22Bryce Campbell
- 23Mike Te'o
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Possession | 30.0% |
| 78.0% | Territory | 22.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 639m | Carry metres | 233m |
| 24 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 53 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 14 | Offloads | 2 |
| 221 | Passes | 57 |
Defence
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 61 | Tackles made | 169 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 53 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 94.1% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 105 | Rucks won | 37 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 881m | Kick metres | 714m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 15 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.