Ireland v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 5
12 October 2019Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
What the model says about Ireland v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 10:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 19.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Jordan Larmour-6.3
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Jean Kleyn
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Luke McGrath
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Andrew Conway
Samoa
- 1Logovi'i Mulipola
- 2Seilala Lam
- 3Michael Alaalatoa
- 4Filo Paulo
- 5Kane Le'aupepe
- 6Chris Vui
- 7TJ Ioane
- 8Jack Lam(c)
- 9Dwayne Polataivao
- 10Ulupano Seuteni
- 11Ed Fidow
- 12Henry Taefu
- 13Alapati Leiua
- 14Ahsee Tuala
- 15Tim Nanai-Williams
Replacements
- 16Ray Niuia
- 17Paul Alo-Emile
- 18Jordan Lay
- 19Piula Fa'asalele
- 20Josh Tyrell
- 21Pele Cowley
- 22Tusi Pisi
- 23Kieron Fonotia
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Possession | 25.0% |
| 81.0% | Territory | 19.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 285m | Carry metres | 168m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 28 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 6 | Offloads | 3 |
| 150 | Passes | 61 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Tackles made | 190 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 28 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 118 | Rucks won | 37 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 11 |
| 601m | Kick metres | 381m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 17 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.