New Zealand v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
71 – 3
15 September 2023Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
What the model says about New Zealand v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 140 m
- Temperature
- 21.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.0 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Leicester Faingaʻanuku
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 21Aaron Smith-4.6
- 22Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 23Rieko Ioane+3.4
Namibia
- 1Jason Benade
- 2Torsten van Jaarsveld
- 3Aranos Coetzee
- 4Johan Retief
- 5Tjiuee Uanivi
- 6Wian Conradie
- 7Prince ǃGaoseb
- 8Richard Hardwick
- 9Damian Stevens
- 10Tiaan Swanepoel
- 11Divan Rossouw
- 12Le Roux Malan
- 13Johan Deysel(c)
- 14Gerswin Mouton
- 15Cliven Loubser
Replacements
- 16Louis van der Westhuizen
- 17Des Sethie
- 18Haitembu Shikufa
- 19PJ van Lill
- 20Adriaan Booysen
- 21Max Katjijeko
- 22Jacques Theron
- 23JC Greyling
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | Possession | 36.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 733m | Carry metres | 212m |
| 23 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 45 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 8 | Offloads | — |
| 190 | Passes | 57 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Tackles made | 114 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 66.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 45 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 72.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 80.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 91.0% |
| 62 | Rucks won | 39 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 774m | Kick metres | 358m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | — |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.