Bunnings NPC 2026
Official site5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 56 actual results locked in
Averaged across all simulations. Win % is the probability of finishing first. Learn more
| Canterbury | 28.7% | 37.6 | +69.8 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| Otago | 24.7% | 38.9 | +126.3 | 7.3 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Northland | 18.8% | 39.2 | +141.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 |
 Hawke's Bay | 12.2% | 37.9 | +115.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
 North Harbour | 5.7% | 35.4 | +94.5 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 4.1 |
 Taranaki | 5.5% | 30.3 | +39.8 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 4.7 |
 Waikato | 2.3% | 30.5 | +24.2 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 4.7 |
 Tasman | 1.2% | 27.0 | -6.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 5.0 |
 Bay of Plenty | 0.8% | 27.2 | -38.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Manawatu | 0.1% | 23.7 | -69.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 5.3 |
 Auckland | 0.0% | 22.5 | -37.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 6.1 |
 Southland | 0.0% | 16.0 | -120.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 7.5 |
 Counties Manukau | 0.0% | 15.6 | -122.8 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 7.3 |
| Wellington | 0.0% | 9.2 | -217.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 9.5 |
Position Distribution
Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 7.0% | 20.2% | 27.2% | 26.9% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Otago | 28.6% | 24.6% | 20.3% | 15.6% | 10.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Northland | 41.7% | 24.1% | 17.5% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hawke's Bay | 16.9% | 21.7% | 23.7% | 21.9% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| North Harbour | 5.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 21.2% | 36.4% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Taranaki | - | - | 0.2% | 2.0% | 9.8% | 28.1% | 41.1% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% | - | - | - | - |
| Waikato | - | - | 0.1% | 1.0% | 10.6% | 33.2% | 27.5% | 17.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.1% | - | - | - |
| Tasman | - | - | - | - | 0.5% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 32.9% | 24.1% | 16.7% | 3.1% | - | - | - |
| Bay of Plenty | - | - | - | - | 0.6% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 25.6% | 30.9% | 18.5% | 4.4% | 0.1% | - | - |
| Manawatu | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4% | 2.0% | 5.5% | 19.8% | 25.6% | 43.2% | 3.4% | 0.1% | - |
| Auckland | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.3% | 3.4% | 15.0% | 35.6% | 42.0% | 3.7% | 0.2% | - |
| Southland | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.1% | 3.5% | 49.9% | 45.2% | 1.2% |
| Counties Manukau | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.7% | 42.1% | 52.1% | 2.1% |
| Wellington | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.8% | 2.5% | 96.7% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Quarter-finals
- Northland42% · 31%
- Tasman33% · 7%
- Otago29% · 24%
- Bay of Plenty26% · 5%
- Waikato18% · 4%
6 more
- Hawke's Bay17% · 12%
- Taranaki15% · 5%
- Canterbury7% · 6%
- North Harbour6% · 4%
- Manawatu6% · 1%
- Auckland3% · <1%
- Taranaki41% · 14%
- Waikato28% · 6%
- Otago25% · 19%
- Northland24% · 18%
- Hawke's Bay23% · 15%
5 more
- Canterbury21% · 16%
- North Harbour13% · 7%
- Bay of Plenty13% · 3%
- Tasman11% · 2%
- Manawatu2% · <1%
- Waikato33% · 8%
- Canterbury29% · 23%
- Taranaki28% · 9%
- Hawke's Bay28% · 18%
- North Harbour23% · 10%
4 more
- Otago21% · 16%
- Northland18% · 13%
- Tasman11% · 2%
- Bay of Plenty8% · 2%
- North Harbour58% · 20%
- Canterbury44% · 31%
- Hawke's Bay33% · 18%
- Otago26% · 15%
- Northland16% · 9%
4 more
- Taranaki12% · 4%
- Waikato12% · 3%
- Bay of Plenty<1% · <1%
- Tasman<1% · <1%
Semi-finals
- Northland40% · 25%
- Otago36% · 25%
- Hawke's Bay25% · 13%
- Canterbury24% · 16%
- Taranaki23% · 7%
5 more
- North Harbour17% · 7%
- Waikato14% · 3%
- Tasman11% · 2%
- Bay of Plenty8% · 1%
- Manawatu2% · <1%
- Canterbury51% · 33%
- Otago38% · 21%
- Hawke's Bay37% · 16%
- Northland31% · 15%
- North Harbour24% · 9%
4 more
- Taranaki9% · 3%
- Waikato7% · 2%
- Bay of Plenty2% · <1%
- Tasman2% · <1%
Final
- Canterbury49% · 29%
- Otago46% · 25%
- Northland40% · 19%
- Hawke's Bay29% · 12%
- North Harbour16% · 6%
4 more
- Taranaki10% · 6%
- Waikato6% · 2%
- Tasman3% · 1%
- Bay of Plenty2% · <1%
All 70 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.