5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 56 actual results locked in

Averaged across all simulations. Win % is the probability of finishing first. Learn more

Canterbury30.2%37.8+70.17.50.12.4
Otago22.8%38.9+126.57.30.02.6
Northland17.7%39.2+141.37.40.02.5
Hawke's Bay12.0%37.9+115.57.10.02.8
North Harbour6.1%35.4+94.95.80.04.1
Taranaki6.0%30.5+40.75.30.04.7
Waikato3.0%30.7+24.85.30.04.6
Tasman1.2%26.9-7.14.90.05.1
Bay of Plenty0.8%27.3-38.95.00.05.0
Manawatu0.1%23.5-69.74.60.15.4
Auckland0.1%22.6-36.43.80.16.1
Southland0.0%16.0-120.62.50.07.5
Counties Manukau0.0%15.5-123.32.60.07.4
Wellington0.0%8.9-218.00.40.09.5

Position Distribution

Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.

Team#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11#12#13#14
Canterbury6.3%22.5%28.2%25.6%15.0%1.8%0.6%-------
Otago29.1%24.4%20.1%14.8%10.2%1.2%0.1%-------
Northland41.1%22.6%17.4%13.0%5.0%0.7%0.1%-------
Hawke's Bay17.4%21.4%23.3%22.0%11.1%3.6%1.3%-------
North Harbour6.1%9.0%10.8%21.3%35.5%13.1%3.9%0.3%------
Taranaki--0.1%2.2%10.8%28.7%40.5%13.9%3.3%0.5%0.1%---
Waikato---1.1%11.3%34.0%25.7%19.1%6.1%2.5%0.1%---
Tasman----0.4%10.0%12.1%31.5%24.0%18.2%3.8%---
Bay of Plenty----0.7%6.7%13.6%26.5%29.4%18.9%4.2%---
Manawatu-----0.1%1.7%5.2%20.2%24.2%45.4%3.1%0.1%-
Auckland------0.3%3.6%17.1%35.5%39.6%3.6%0.2%-
Southland---------0.2%3.3%52.0%43.4%1.1%
Counties Manukau----------3.6%40.5%54.0%1.9%
Wellington-----------0.7%2.2%97.0%

Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.

Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.

Quarter-finals

  • Northland41% · 30%
  • Tasman32% · 9%
  • Otago29% · 22%
  • Bay of Plenty27% · 6%
  • Waikato19% · 6%
6 more
  • Hawke's Bay17% · 12%
  • Taranaki14% · 5%
  • North Harbour6% · 4%
  • Canterbury6% · 5%
  • Manawatu5% · 1%
  • Auckland4% · <1%
  • Taranaki41% · 14%
  • Waikato26% · 8%
  • Otago25% · 18%
  • Canterbury23% · 19%
  • Northland23% · 15%
5 more
  • Hawke's Bay23% · 14%
  • Bay of Plenty14% · 3%
  • North Harbour13% · 7%
  • Tasman12% · 3%
  • Manawatu2% · <1%
  • Waikato34% · 9%
  • Canterbury30% · 23%
  • Taranaki29% · 10%
  • Hawke's Bay27% · 17%
  • North Harbour24% · 10%
4 more
  • Otago21% · 15%
  • Northland18% · 12%
  • Tasman10% · 3%
  • Bay of Plenty7% · 1%
  • North Harbour57% · 20%
  • Canterbury41% · 28%
  • Hawke's Bay33% · 17%
  • Otago25% · 15%
  • Northland18% · 11%
3 more
  • Taranaki13% · 5%
  • Waikato12% · 4%
  • Bay of Plenty<1% · <1%

Semi-finals

  • Northland39% · 24%
  • Otago34% · 22%
  • Hawke's Bay25% · 14%
  • Taranaki23% · 8%
  • Canterbury22% · 15%
6 more
  • Waikato17% · 5%
  • North Harbour16% · 7%
  • Tasman12% · 3%
  • Bay of Plenty9% · 2%
  • Manawatu1% · <1%
  • Auckland<1% · <1%
  • Canterbury53% · 34%
  • Otago36% · 20%
  • Hawke's Bay35% · 14%
  • Northland28% · 13%
  • North Harbour25% · 10%
4 more
  • Taranaki12% · 5%
  • Waikato8% · 3%
  • Tasman2% · <1%
  • Bay of Plenty2% · <1%

Final

  • Canterbury49% · 30%
  • Otago42% · 23%
  • Northland37% · 18%
  • Hawke's Bay28% · 12%
  • North Harbour17% · 6%
4 more
  • Taranaki13% · 6%
  • Waikato8% · 3%
  • Tasman3% · 1%
  • Bay of Plenty3% · <1%

All 70 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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