Assume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.

Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.

Assume a result

Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.

Round 1

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 2

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 3

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 4

played
played
played
played
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played
played

Round 5

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 6

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 7

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 8

played
played
played
played
played
played
played

Round 9

Round 10

What follows

Winning the tournament, and reaching the quarter-finals, against the same figures with nothing assumed.

TeamWinChangeQualifyChange
Canterbury30.2%100.0%
Otago22.8%100.0%
Northland17.7%100.0%
Hawke's Bay12.0%100.0%
North Harbour6.1%100.0%
Taranaki6.0%96.2%
Waikato3.0%91.3%
Tasman1.2%54.0%
Bay of Plenty0.8%47.6%
Manawatu0.1%7.0%
Auckland<0.1%4.0%
Counties Manukau<0.1%<0.1%
Southland<0.1%<0.1%
Wellington<0.1%<0.1%
Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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