Bunnings NPC 2026

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Tasman wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bay of Plenty by 5 to Tasman by 14 · median Tasman by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Tasman by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Auckland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Manawatu by 2 to Auckland by 17 · median Auckland by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Auckland by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 32-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Canterbury wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Canterbury by 4 to Canterbury by 26 · median Canterbury by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Canterbury by 13 is 27-14 as readily as 38-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are North Harbour wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Otago by 11 to North Harbour by 6 · median Otago by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Otago by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northland by 1 to Northland by 20 · median Northland by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northland by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Hawke's Bay wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Taranaki by 6 to Hawke's Bay by 11 · median Hawke's Bay by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Hawke's Bay by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Wellington wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Waikato by 13 to Wellington by 3 · median Waikato by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Waikato by 4 is 23-19 as readily as 34-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Otago wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Otago by 2 to Otago by 21 · median Otago by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Otago by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Southland wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northland by 14 to Southland by 4 · median Northland by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northland by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 34-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Counties Manukau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Hawke's Bay by 13 to Counties Manukau by 5 · median Hawke's Bay by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Hawke's Bay by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Manawatu wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Canterbury by 14 to Manawatu by 1 · median Canterbury by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Canterbury by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Waikato wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Tasman by 3 to Waikato by 14 · median Waikato by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Waikato by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bay of Plenty wins.

Middle half of outcomes: North Harbour by 4 to Bay of Plenty by 15 · median Bay of Plenty by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bay of Plenty by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Taranaki wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Taranaki by 4 to Taranaki by 25 · median Taranaki by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Taranaki by 13 is 27-14 as readily as 39-26.