England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 32
11 April 1999Wembley Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Richard Cockerill
- 3Darren Garforth
- 4Martin Johnson+2.1
- 5Tim Rodber
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Mike Catt+2.3
- 11Steve Hanley
- 12Barrie-Jon Mather
- 13Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Victor Ubogu
- 17Tony Underwood
- 18Austin Healey
- 19Nick Beal
- 20Neil McCarthy
- 21Garath Archer
- 22Martin Corry-6.2
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Ben Evans
- 4Craig Quinnell
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley(c)
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Nick Walne
- 17Dai Young
- 18Andrew Lewis
- 19Mike Voyle
- 20Neil Boobyer
- 21David Llewellyn
- 22Barry Williams
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.