England v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 30
9 October 1999Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 14.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Richard Cockerill
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Jerry Guscott
- 13Phil de Glanville
- 14Austin Healey
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Paul Grayson+7.3
- 17Martin Corry-6.2
- 18Tim Rodber
- 19Darren Garforth
- 20Phil Greening
- 21Will Greenwood
- 22Nick Beal
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Craig Dowd
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Robin Brooke
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Alama Ieremia
- 13Christian Cullen
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Daryl Gibson
- 17Tony Brown
- 18Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 19Royce Willis
- 20Greg Feek
- 21Andrew Blowers
- 22Mark Hammett
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.