Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 16
19 February 2000Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Craig Quinnell
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Geraint Lewis
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Mark Taylor+1.1
- 13Allan Bateman
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Colin Charvis-5.3
- 17Barry Williams
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Stephen Jones+0.2
- 20Dafydd James-9.4
- 21Spencer John
- 22Richard Smith
Italy
- 1Massimo Cuttitta
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Tino Paoletti
- 4Giuseppe Lanzi
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Carlo Checchinato
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Wim Visser
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Luca Martin
- 13Marco Rivaro
- 14Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Carlo Orlandi
- 17Alejandro Moreno
- 18Andrea Scanavacca
- 19Aaron Persico
- 20Laurent Travers
- 21Matteo Mazzantini
- 22Juan Francesio
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.