Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 23
1 April 2000Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 7.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.2 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Mick Galwey
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7Kieron Dawson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Rob Henderson-2.2
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Andy Ward
- 17Jeremy Davidson
- 18David Humphreys
- 19Justin Fitzpatrick-4.2
- 20Kevin Maggs
- 21Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 22Guy Easterby
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Andy Moore
- 6Nathan Budgett
- 7Colin Charvis-5.3
- 8Geraint Lewis
- 9Rupert Moon
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Allan Bateman
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Robin McBryde+4.3
- 17Neil Jenkins
- 18Dafydd James-9.4
- 19Spencer John
- 20Emyr Lewis
- 21Martyn Williams+5.7
- 22Richard Smith
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.