Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 33
8 April 2001Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 12:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 11.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.6 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Franco Properzi-Curti
- 4Wim Visser
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Carlo Checchinato
- 9Matteo Mazzantini
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nanni Raineri
- 13Walter Pozzebon
- 14Massimiliano Perziano
- 15Cristian Stoica+7.0
Replacements
- 16Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 17Corrado Pilat
- 18Maurizio Zaffiri
- 19Giampiero de Carli
- 20Luca Martin
- 21Carlo Caione
- 22Giampiero Mazzi
Wales
- 1Darren Morris
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Dai Young(c)
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Andy Moore
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Allan Bateman
- 17Craig Quinnell
- 18Andrew Lewis
- 19Chris Anthony
- 20Geraint Lewis
- 21Huw Harries
- 22Stephen Jones+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.