South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
3 – 12
21 July 2001DHL Newlands, Cape Town
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 24 m
- Temperature
- 13.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Robbie Kempson
- 2Lukas van Biljon
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Victor Matfield-1.4
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Andre Vos
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Bobby Skinstad(c)+2.3
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Dean Hall
- 12Robbie Fleck
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Deon Kayser
- 17Ollie le Roux
- 18Johan Ackermann
- 19John Smit+6.0
- 20Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 21Neil de Kock
- 22Conrad Jantjes
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver(c)-0.3
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Troy Flavell
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Taine Randell
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Tony Brown
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 17Chris Jack
- 18Marty Holah-0.8
- 19Mark Hammett
- 20Carl Hayman-10.3
- 21Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 22Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.