New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 23
11 August 2001Carisbrook, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 02:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 118 m
- Temperature
- 6.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver(c)-0.3
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Troy Flavell
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Taine Randell
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Tony Brown
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Mark Cooksley
- 17Carl Hayman-10.3
- 18Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 19Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 20Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 21Marty Holah-0.8
- 22Mark Hammett
Australia
- 1Nick Stiles
- 2Michael Foley
- 3Rod Moore
- 4Justin Harrison
- 5John Eales(c)
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7George Smith
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Nathan Grey+10.3
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Andrew Walker
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.