Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 26
1 September 2001Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 12.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Nick Stiles
- 2Michael Foley
- 3Rod Moore
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5John Eales(c)
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7George Smith
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Nathan Grey+10.3
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Chris Latham+0.2
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
- 16Phil Waugh
- 17Ben Darwin
- 18Matt Cockbain
- 19Andrew Walker
- 20Elton Flatley
- 21Brendan Cannon
- 22Chris Whitaker
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver(c)-0.3
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Chris Jack
- 6Troy Flavell
- 7Taine Randell
- 8Ron Cribb
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Pita Alatini
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Marty Holah-0.8
- 17Christian Cullen
- 18Justin Marshall
- 19Carl Hayman-10.3
- 20Mark Hammett
- 21Mark Cooksley
- 22Tony Brown
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.