Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 14
20 October 2001Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 11.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.1 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 23 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3John Hayes
- 4Mick Galwey
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Eric Miller-2.2
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Ronan O'Gara
- 17Emmet Byrne
- 18Trevor Brennan
- 19Kieron Dawson
- 20Mike Mullins
- 21Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 22Guy Easterby
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Phil Greening
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Martin Corry-6.2
- 7Neil Back
- 8Richard Hill
- 9Matt Dawson(c)
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Jason Robinson+5.5
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 17Dorian West
- 18Austin Healey
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 21Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 22Matt Perry
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.