England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 11
16 February 2002Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 3.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Joe Worsley+4.0
- 9Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Austin Healey
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Jason Leonard
- 17Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 18Lewis Moody+1.4
- 19Iain Balshaw+8.5
- 20Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 21Nick Duncombe
- 22Dorian West
Ireland
- 1Peter Clohessy
- 2Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 3John Hayes
- 4Mick Galwey(c)
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Eric Miller-2.2
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Geordan Murphy-2.5
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Rob Henderson-2.2
- 17Ronan O'Gara
- 18Shane Byrne
- 19Gary Longwell
- 20Simon Easterby-7.8
- 21Paul Wallace
- 22Guy Easterby
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.