Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 20
2 March 2002Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Chris Anthony
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Andy Moore
- 6Nathan Budgett
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell(c)
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Craig Morgan
- 12Andy Marinos
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Dafydd James-9.4
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Rhys Williams
- 17Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 18Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 19Barry Williams
- 20Iestyn Harris
- 21Brett Sinkinson
- 22Spencer John
Italy
- 1Giampiero de Carli
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 4Mark Giacheri
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Carlo Checchinato
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 12Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 13Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 14Roberto Pedrazzi
- 15Gert Peens
Replacements
- 16Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 17Matt Phillips
- 18Francesco Mazzariol
- 19Nanni Raineri
- 20Andrea Benatti
- 21Federico Pucciariello
- 22Matteo Mazzantini
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.