Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 45
7 April 2002Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 13.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Giampiero de Carli
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Federico Pucciariello
- 4Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Aaron Persico
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Matt Phillips
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nanni Raineri
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Gert Peens
Replacements
- 16Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 17Cristian Zanoletti
- 18Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 19Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 20Andrea Moretti
- 21Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 22Matteo Mazzantini
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Lewis Moody+1.4
- 7Neil Back(c)
- 8Richard Hill
- 9Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Martin Johnson+2.1
- 17Jason Leonard
- 18Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 19Matt Dawson
- 20Austin Healey
- 21Dorian West
- 22Charlie Hodgson-2.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.