Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 14
3 August 2002Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 09:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 14.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.4 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Patricio Noriega
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Justin Harrison
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7George Smith
- 8Toutai Kefu
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 12Dan Herbert
- 13Matt Burke
- 14Ben Tune-0.3
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Tom Willis
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Simon Maling
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Scott Robertson
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Caleb Ralph
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Tana Umaga-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Christian Cullen
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Joe McDonnell
- 18Marty Holah-0.8
- 19Sam Broomhall
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Daryl Gibson
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.