England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 17
15 February 2003Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 1.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Lewis Moody+1.4
- 7Neil Back
- 8Richard Hill
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 18Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 19Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 20Nick Walshe
- 21Phil Christophers
- 22James Simpson-Daniel
France
- 1Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Christian Califano-10.0
- 4Olivier Brouzet
- 5Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Fabien Galthie(c)+6.5
- 10Gerald Merceron
- 11Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 12Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
- 13Damien Traille+3.1
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Jean-Baptiste Rue
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Francois Gelez
- 22Thomas Castaignede-2.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.