France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 5
29 March 2003Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 12:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 13.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 4Fabien Pelous(c)+1.3
- 5Olivier Brouzet
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Xavier Garbajosa-2.6
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Thomas Castaignede-2.7
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Jean-Baptiste Rue
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Patrick Tabacco
- 20Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 21Gerald Merceron
- 22Vincent Clerc+1.5
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Robert Sidoli
- 5Gareth Llewellyn
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams(c)+5.7
- 8Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Craig Morgan
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Gareth Williams
- 17Martyn Madden
- 18Steve Williams
- 19Gavin Thomas
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 22Matthew Watkins
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.