England v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 6
18 October 2003Patersons Stadium, Perth (WA) · neutral venue
What the model says about England v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 12:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 13.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Lewis Moody+1.4
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Jason Robinson+5.5
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Dorian West
- 17Jason Leonard
- 18Martin Corry-6.2
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Paul Grayson+7.3
- 22Dan Luger-5.9
South Africa
- 1Christo Bezuidenhout
- 2Danie Coetzee
- 3Richard Bands
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Louis Koen
- 11Thinus Delport
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Jorrie Muller
- 14Ashwin Willemse
- 15Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Replacements
- 16John Smit+6.0
- 17Lawrence Sephaka
- 18Selborne Boome
- 19Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21Derick Hougaard
- 22Werner Greeff
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Possession | — |
Attack
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 365m | Carry metres | 349m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 9 | Offloads | 6 |
| 150 | Passes | 116 |
Defence
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 108 | Tackles made | 110 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 90.9% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 20 |
| 14 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Rucks won | 63 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 1106m | Kick metres | 696m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 21 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.