Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 27
25 October 2003GIO Stadium, Canberra · neutral venue
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 617 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 9.2 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 6Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Gonzalo Canale
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Matt Phillips
- 19Scott Palmer
- 20Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 21Francesco Mazzariol
- 22Cristian Bezzi
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Gareth Llewellyn
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Sonny Parker
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Robert Sidoli
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Rhys Williams
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Possession | 100.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 591m | Carry metres | 381m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 11 | Offloads | 14 |
| 163 | Passes | 121 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Tackles made | 141 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 88.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | 81.3% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 109 | Rucks won | 44 |
| 11 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 850m | Kick metres | 1276m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.