New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 9
9 November 2003Melbourne, Melbourne · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 13.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Jerry Collins
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Mark Hammett
- 17Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 18Brad Thorn+3.6
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Steve Devine
- 21Dan Carter+1.9
- 22Caleb Ralph
South Africa
- 1Christo Bezuidenhout
- 2John Smit+6.0
- 3Faan Rautenbach
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Corne Krige(c)-5.2
- 7Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 8Juan Smith+0.6
- 9Joost van der Westhuizen
- 10Derick Hougaard
- 11Thinus Delport
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Jorrie Muller
- 14Ashwin Willemse
- 15Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
Replacements
- 16Danie Coetzee
- 17Richard Bands
- 18Selborne Boome
- 19Schalk Burger+6.0
- 20Neil de Kock
- 21Louis Koen
- 22Jaque Fourie+6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Possession | — |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 737m | Carry metres | 337m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 45 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 20 | Offloads | 10 |
| 168 | Passes | 91 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | Tackles made | 155 |
| 96.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 4 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 45 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 94.4% | Lineout success | 92.3% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 15 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 12 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 625m | Kick metres | 566m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 16 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 17 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.