England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 7
16 November 2003Accor Stadium, Sydney · neutral venue
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 09:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 17.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.0 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Jason Robinson+5.5
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Dorian West
- 17Jason Leonard
- 18Martin Corry-6.2
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 21Mike Tindall+3.5
- 22Iain Balshaw+8.5
France
- 1Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 2Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 3Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 4Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Fabien Galthie(c)+6.5
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Tony Marsh
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Nicolas Brusque+1.9
Replacements
- 16Yannick Bru
- 17Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Christian Labit
- 20Gerald Merceron
- 21Damien Traille+3.1
- 22Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Possession | 100.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 315m | Carry metres | 227m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 7 | Offloads | 2 |
| 125 | Passes | 56 |
Defence
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 55 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 88.0% |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 77.8% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 14 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Rucks won | 32 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Kicks from hand | 40 |
| 1469m | Kick metres | 1078m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 17 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 19 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.