Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 10
14 February 2004Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 6.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Gareth Llewellyn
- 6Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Sonny Parker
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Gareth Thomas+5.9
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Michael Owen+2.1
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Cameron Mather
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Chris Paterson(c)+1.8
- 11Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 12Brendan Laney
- 13Tom Philip
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Ben Hinshelwood
Replacements
- 16Gavin Kerr
- 17Robbie Russell+3.0
- 18Jason White+12.3
- 19Simon Cross
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Simon Webster+9.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.